First- let me point out that I certainly don't mean to assert that John McMonigle and Natalie Portman have anything in common, and in fact I have not yet seen, nor intend to see the movie "The Black Swan".
What I do mean to reference however is Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan", which to summarize (probably inadequately), details the probability of world-changing events, the unlikelihood of accurately predicting said events, and how it is human nature to try to explain the events by looking at all of the evidence that could have caused them to be "predictable".
What McMonigle has done in has career is no doubt extraordinary. One need only Google his name to find the accolades and accomplishments he has to display. What this week's events do call in to question however is at what cost he achieved this greatness. Who did he need to take advantage of, swindle, or steamroll over in order to get into the position he is in, or was it completely on the up and up?
Not having accomplished anywhere near what McMonigle has (although in fairness I've had far fewer years), I certainly cannot sit in a position of judgment of results, only a position of judgment of character. What seems to overwhelmingly be the reaction is that his refusal to service debt is not in fact his "business savvy", nor is strong-arming those to whom he is indebted a particularly good strategy. It is simply the inability to service debt. Almost as egregious an error in business acumen was the seemingly insatiable appetite for expansion- which in turn ultimately led to his two biggest failures: Villa Del Lago and the HQ.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe years of blood, sweat, and litigation later, McMonigle will be vindicated, OneWest Bank will finance the completion of Villa Del Lago, restructure his debt on other properties (including the office), and all will be "right" again in Orange County Real Estate. There is something to be said for the fact that despite all the negative press, he is still the premier agent in Orange County with listings that most of us "plebians" could not fathom in our wildest, tiger's blood induced fantasies.
What is relatively clear is that he is not a particularly good developer. Then again, neither are many of the developers who have folded since the bubble. Development isn't easy. There is a lot of uncertainty, and every now and then lenders will sometimes do annoying things like cut off your funding. Usually, however, the trait that a lot of successful developers have in common is that they are perceived to have the utmost integrity. The idea being, of course, that it is their integrity that facilitates their success, and not the other way around.
So that leaves us with a question. Are these accusations of thievery, financial ruin and underhanded business dealings a public attempt to explain a black swan? Or are they a legitimate summary of the actions that took place during McMonigle's meteoric rise to some combination of prominence and dominance, while he was able to fool the public into believing he had the sterling reputation and integrity that were the backbone of his success?
While probably only John and those closest to him know for sure, it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
